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                    首页 > 新闻 > 船市观察 > 正文

                    2019年全球船市评述与2020年展望

                    2018-12-02 21:52:00
                    来源:中国船舶报 编辑: 国际船舶网 我有话要说

                    2019NIAN,XINCHUANJIANZAOSHICHANGYIRANCHENGXIANSANZUDINGLIZHISHI。ZHONGRIHANSANGUOXINJIEDINGDANLIANGHEJIZHANSHIJIESHICHANGFENEDE97.8%。

                    2020NIAN,SANHUOCHUANYUNLIZENGZHANGYUE2.3%,DIYUXUQIUZENGZHANGDE3.2%,GONGXIAOYUQIU。MUQIAN,DUOJIAHANGYUNGONGSIDOUDUI2020NIANSANHUOCHUANSHICHANGCHILEGUANTAIDU,2020NIANSANYUNSHICHANGYOUWANGPINGWENYUNXING,HUANMANFUSU;KAOLVDAODANGQIANJINGZHENGGEJUQUXIANGWENDING,WEILAIYINIANJIZHUANGXIANGCHUANJIANZAOSHICHANGSUIRANJIANNAN,DANYEYOUWANGWEICHIPINGWENTAISHI;YOUCHUANJIANZAOSHICHANGYOUWANGDEDAOCHIXUGAISHAN,DANKAOLVDAOFENGXIANSHIJIAN,RENGXUBAOCHIJINSHEN;JINGUANJINNIANLNGCHUANDINGDANLIANGYOUSUOJIANSHAO,DANZAIQINGJIENENGYUANDEJUDAXUQIUTUIDONGXIA,2020NIANLNGCHUANJIANGYIRANHUOLISHIZU。

                    世界经济和航运市场走势

                    世界经济

                    2019NIAN4YUE,GUOJIHUOBIJIJINZUZHI(IMF)YUCE2019NIANQUANQIUJINGJIZENGSUWEI3.3%,10YUEJIANGQUANQIUJINGJIZENGSUYUCEZHIXIADIAOZHI3%。IMFZHICHU,QUANQIUFANWEINEIGUANSHUIZENGJIAYUMAOYIZHENGDUANJIAJU、ZHIZAOYEDIMI、TOUZIHEZIBENPINXUQIUBUZUSHIQUANQIUJINGJIZHENGTIZENGSUFANGHUANDEZHUYAOYUANYIN,QIE3%DEQUANQIUJINGJIZENGSUYUCEZHISHIZI2008NIANGUOJIJINRONGWEIJIBAOFAYILAIDEZUIDISHUIPING。CONGBUDUANXIADIAODEYUCEZHILAIKAN,2019NIANQUANQIUJINGJIZENGZHANGFANGHUAN,SHIJIEJINGJIXINGSHIYANJUN,BURONGLEGUAN。

                    2020NIAN,QUANQIUJINGJIZENGSUYUJIWEI3.4%,YUJINNIAN4YUEXIANGBIXIADIAO0.2GEBAIFENDIAN。RUJIN,DANBIANZHUYIHEBAOHUZHUYIZHENGZAIBUDUANWEIHAIQUANQIUMAOYIHESHIJIEJINGJIZENGZHANG,QIBUQUEDINGXINGYEZAIDAJIQUANQIUJINGJIXINXIN,DONGYAOJINGJIYUQI。DIYUANZHENGZHIXINGSHIDEJINZHANGYUFUZAYICHENGWEIDANGXIAQUANQIUJINGJIZENGZHANGDEJUDAZHANGAI,YINCI,2020NIANQUANQIUJINGJIXINGSHISHANGBUMINGLANG。

                    世界航运市场

                    炫美棋牌2019NIAN10YUE,LIANHEGUOMAOYIHEFAZHANHUIYI(UNCYAD)FABUDE《2019NIANHAIYUNBAOGAO》ZHICHU,2018NIAN,GUOJIHAISHANGMAOYIZENGSU2.7%,ZONGYUNLIDADAO110YIDUN,YUJIZAI2019~2024NIAN,ZENGZHANGLVJIANGCHAOGUO3.5%。2019NIANQIAN8GEYUE,KELAKESONGHAIYUNZONGHEZHISHUPINGJUNZHIJIAOQUNIANTONGQISHANGZHANG12%(2018NIANQUANNIANZENGZHANG13%),KELAKESONGYUJIYOUCHUANSHICHANGHEYEHUATIANRANQI(LNG)SHICHANGMINGNIANHUIYOUHAODEBIAOXIAN,DANBUQUEDINGXINGYIRANSHIYINGXIANGHANGYUNSHICHANGDEZHUYAOYINSU。

                    SANYUNFANGMIAN,BOLUODEHAIGANSANHUOZONGHEYUNJIAZHISHU(BDI)ZAI2~9YUEJIBENCHENGSHANGSHENGQUSHI,ZUIGAODA2518DIAN。9YUEHOU,SUIZHEQUANQIUJINGJIPIRUANJITIEKUANGSHIXUQIUJIANRUO,YUNJIAMINGXIANHUILUO,BDICHENGXIAJIANGQUSHI。

                    YOUYUNFANGMIAN,SHOUSHATEYUXISHIJIANYINGXIANG,YOUCHUANYUANYOUYUNJIAZHISHU(BDTI)HEYOUCHUANCHENGPINYOUYUNJIAZHISHU(BCTI)CHUXIANYIBOMENGZHANG,SUIHOUXUNSUHUILUO。

                    炫美棋牌JIYUNFANGMIAN,YOUYUMAOYIZENGZHANGFALIYIJIDAXINGJIZHUANGXIANGCHUANDECHIXUJIAOFU,JINNIANSHANGBANNIANYUNFEIBINGBULIXIANG。WEILETIGAOYUNJIA,BANLUNGONGSIQUXIAOLEBUFENHANGCI,YIJIUMEIYOUZUZHIYUNJIAXIADIEDEBUFA。ZAI2019NIANQIAN3JIDUZHONG,GONGYOU42SOUJIZHUANGXIANGCHUANHANGCIBEIQUXIAO,HE2018NIANTONGQIXIANGBIQUXIAOLVTIGAOLEYIBEIDUO。SHOUZHONGMEIMAOYIZHANYINGXIANG,JINNIANQIAN7GEYUE,YUANDONGZHIBEIMEIHANGXIANYUNLIANGXIAJIANG0.4%;JIEZHI10YUE,MEIGUOXIHAIAN(USWC)YUNLIANGXIAHUA,JIQIYUNFEITONGBIXIAJIANG28.9%。

                    2019年世界船舶建造市场形势

                    2019NIAN1~10YUE,ZHONGGUO、RIBEN、HANGUOZAOCHUANWANGONGLIANG、XINJIEDINGDANLIANGHESHOUCHIDINGDANLIANGZHANSHIJIESHICHANGFENERUBIAO1SUOSHI。

                    炫美棋牌ZONGTILAIKAN,XINCHUANJIANZAOSHICHANGYIRANCHENGXIANSANZUDINGLIZHISHI。ZHONGRIHANSANGUOXINJIEDINGDANLIANGHEJIZHANSHIJIESHICHANGFENEDE97.8%。QIZHONG,ZHONGGUOZAOCHUANWANGONGLIANG、XINJIEDINGDANLIANG、SHOUCHIDINGDANLIANGFENBIEZHANSHIJIESHICHANGFENEDE36.8%、43.6%HE43.6%,XIAOFUCHAOGUOHANGUO,DAFUCHAOGUORIBEN,WEIJUSHIJIEDIYI。

                    新船订单量总体下降,各船型降幅不一

                    炫美棋牌GENJUIHS Sea-WebSHUJU,JIEZHI2019NIAN10YUE,SHIJIEXINZAOCHUANSHICHANGZONGTICHENGXIANXIADIETAISHI,XINCHUANDINGDANLIANGYIZAIZHONGDUNJI,TONGBIXIAJIANG17.1%,RUBIAO2SUOSHI。

                    炫美棋牌SANDAZHULIUCHUANXINGZHONGXINCHUANDINGDANLIANGJIANGFUZUIDADESHIJIZHUANGXIANGCHUAN,QICIWEISANHUOCHUAN,YIZAIZHONGDUNJI,FENBIEXIADIE44%HE22%。CIWAI,GUNZHUANGCHUAN、KEGUNCHUANHEKECHUANDINGDANSOUSHUHE2018NIANTONGQIXIANGBIYECHUXIANDAFUXIAJIANG,XIAJIANGFUDUFENBIEWEI48%、64.1%HE48%。

                    各主要市场艰难中前行

                    1.散货船建造市场

                    YU2018NIANTONGQIXIANGBI,2019NIAN1~10YUE,SANHUOCHUANXINCHUANDINGDANLIANGZHENGTICHENGXIANXIAJIANGTAISHI,QIZHONG,HAOWANGJIAOXINGSANHUOCHUANJIANGFUZUIDA,XINCHUANDINGDANLIANG27SOU、589WANZAIZHONGDUN,YIZAIZHONGDUNJITONGBIXIAJIANG35.8%。QIYUCHUANXINGXIAOFUXIAJIANG,HUOYUQUNIANTONGQIJIBENCHIPING。

                    炫美棋牌JIANZAOGUOJIAFANGMIAN,SANHUOCHUANXINZAOCHUANSHICHANGJIBENBEIZHONGGUOHERIBENLONGDUAN。ZHONGRILIANGGUOHUODESANHUOCHUANXINCHUANSHICHANGJIN93%DEDINGDAN,YUQUNIANTONGQIXIANGBI,ZHONGGUOCHUANCHANGDINGDANLIANGNISHISHANGZHANG,SHICHANGFENECONG45%ZENGJIADAO61%,RIBENDINGDANFENECONG44%XIADIEDAO32%,YIZAIZHONGDUNJIXIADIEFUDUGAODA43%。2018/2019NIANSANHUOCHUANXINCHUANDINGDANLIANGRUTU1SUOSHI。

                    2.油船建造市场

                    炫美棋牌YOUCHUANSHISANDAZHULIUCHUANXINGZHONGBIAOXIANZUIHAODECHUANXING, 2019NIAN1~10YUE,YOUCHUANDINGDANLIANGWEI118SOU、1548WANZAIZHONGDUN,HEQUNIANTONGQIXIANGBIWEICHIPINGWENTAISHI,XIAJIANGFUDUJIAOXIAO。QIZHONG,CHAODAXINGYOUCHUANDINGDANLIANGWEI730WANZAIZHONGDUN,TONGBIXIAJIANG33.4%,DANYIRANZHANJUXINCHUANSHICHANGDEBANBIJIANGSHAN。ERAFULAXINGYOUCHUANHESUYISHIXINGYOUCHUANZENGZHANGFUDUJUDA,FENBIEWEI444WANZAIZHONGDUNHE300WANZAIZHONGDUN,ZHANGFUGAODA94.7%HE376.2%。

                    炫美棋牌CONGJIANZAOGUOJIALAIKAN,HANGUOYIRANSHIYOUCHUANJIANZAOSHICHANGDEBAZHU,ZHANJUQUANQIUSHICHANGFENEDE59%,DINGDANLIANGWEI54SOU、910WANZAIZHONGDUN,DANANZAIZHONGDUNJITONGBIXIAJIANG22%。RIBENHEZHONGGUOYIRANPAIZAIDIERHEDISANWEI,DANANZAIZHONGDUNJIJUNYOUDAFUTIGAO,QIZHONGRIBENDINGDANLIANGWEI29SOU、355WANZAIZHONGDUN,TISHENGFUDUWEI85.9%,ZHONGGUODINGDANLIANGWEI27SOU、259WANZAIZHONGDUN,TISHENGFUDUWEI37.8%。ZONGTILAIKAN,YOUCHUANSHICHANGJIBENBEIZHONGRIHANSANGUOGUAFEN,JUTIQINGKUANGRUTU2SUOSHI。

                    3.集装箱船建造市场

                    ZONGTILAIKAN,JIZHUANGXIANGCHUANXINZAOCHUANSHICHANGSHUAITUIMINGXIAN,JIAOWEICANDAN。JIEZHI2019NIAN10YUE,JIZHUANGXIANGCHUANXINCHUANDINGDANWEI84SOU、74WANTEU,ANTEUJITONGBIXIAJIANG30.8%,XIAJIANGFUDUJIAODA。XIFENSHICHANGLAIKAN,20000TEUYISHANGJIZHUANGXIANGCHUANYICHENGWEIJIZHUANGXIANGCHUANXINZAOCHUANSHICHANGCHONGER,GAIXINGCHUANDINGDANLIANGTONGBISHANGSHENG27.8%,QIYUCHUANXINGDINGDANLIANGJUNXIANZHUXIAJIANG。

                    2019NIAN1~10YUE,JIZHUANGXIANGCHUANDINGDANQUANBUBEIZHONGRIHANSANGUOSHOURUNANGZHONG,CONGDINGDANSOUSHUSHANGKAN,ZHONGGUOYI42SOUWEIJUDIYI,QICISHIHANGUO27SOU、RIBEN15SOU,DANANTEUJI,HANGUOYI35WANTEUDEJUEDUIXINGYOUSHIDUODEBANGSHOUWEIZHI,ZHONGGUOWEIJUQIHOUWEI29WANTEU,RIBENWEI10WANTEU。HEQUNIANTONGQIXIANGBI,ZHONGGUO(BUBAOKUOZHONGGUOTAIBEI)JIZHUANGXIANGCHUANSHICHANGFENEDAFUTISHENG,FUDUYUEWEI249.5%。JIZHUANGXIANGCHUANXINCHUANDINGDANJIANZAOGUOJIAFENEJUTIQINGKUANGRUTU3SUOSHI。

                    4.其他船型建造市场

                    炫美棋牌SHOUJINGJIXINGSHIYINGXIANG,CHUZAHUOCHUANWAI,QITAGELEICHUANXINGXINCHUANDINGDANLIANGJUNYOUSUOXIAJIANG。QIZHONG,KECHUAN、GUNZHUANGCHUANHEKEGUNCHUANJIANGFUXIANZHU,HUAXUEPINCHUANJIANGFUZUIXIAO。HANGUOZHANJULEYEHUAQICHUAN、HUAXUEPINCHUANHEGUNZHUANGCHUANZHUYAODESHICHANGFENE,ERZHONGGUOZEZAIZAHUOCHUAN、KEGUNCHUANSHICHANGSHANGYOUSUOJIANSHU。

                    2020年世界造船市场展望

                    散货船市场,平稳运行缓慢复苏

                    ZHONGGUOGANSANHUOJINKOUSHISHICHANGPINGHENGZHONGXUQIUDUANZHUYAOQUDONGYINSU,MUQIAN,ZHONGGUOGANGKOUTIEKUANGSHIKUCUNWEICHIZAI1.21YIDUN,MEITANXUQIUJIAOWEIPINGWEN,YUJIJINNIANGUONEIGANGTIECHANLIANGWEI10YIDUN,YOUWANGDAIDONGTIEKUANGSHIJINKOU。

                    炫美棋牌JUBanchero CostaYUCE,2019NIANSANHUOCHUANSHIJIJIAOFULIANGWEI4000WANZAIZHONGDUN,JINGCHUANDUIZENGZHANGLVWEI3%,DANSUIZHE2020NIANQUANQIUDABUFENSANHUOCHUANJIANGGAIYONGGENGWEIANGGUIDEDILIURANLIAO,BUFENSANHUOCHUANKENENGTUICHU,DUIGONGXUPINGHENGJIANGCHANSHENGJIJIYINGXIANG。2020NIANSANHUOCHUANYUNLIZENGZHANGYUE2.3%,DIYUXUQIUZENGZHANGDE3.2%,GONGXIAOYUQIU。MUQIAN,DUOJIAHANGYUNGONGSIDOUDUI2020NIANSANHUOCHUANSHICHANGCHILEGUANTAIDU,2020NIANSANYUNSHICHANGYOUWANGPINGWENYUNXING,HUANMANFUSU。

                    油船市场,持续改善仍需谨慎

                    炫美棋牌2019NIANQIAN9GEYUE,YOUCHUANJIAOFULIANGBIQUNIANYOULESHIZHIXINGZENGZHANG,TONGYISHIQI,CHAICHUANLIANGJIANSHAO52%,ZAIYIDINGCHENGDUSHANGCUNZAIYUNLIGUOSHENGWENTI。ZONGTIGONGXUFANGMIAN,YAZHOUGUOJIAXUQIUZHANBI63%,ZHONGGUOZHANJUQUANQIUYUANYOUZHOUZHUANLIANGDE29%,ZAICHUKOUDUAN,ZHONGDONGDIQUZHANBI51%。YOUGUANDIANRENWEI,SHOUZHONGDONGDIYUANZHENGZHIHESHIYOUSHUCHUGUOZUZHI(OPEC)JIANCHANYINGXIANG,MEIGUOCHUKOUFENEYOUWANGZHUIGANZHONGDONG。2018NIANNIANDI,MEIGUOYUANYOUCHANLIANGYICHAOGUOELUOSIYUSHATE,CONGJINKOUGUOZHUANWEICHUKOUGUO。

                    YOUYUCONGMEIGUOYUNSHUZHIYUANDONGDEJULISHIZHONGDONGDAOYUANDONGDE3BEI,JINGCESUAN,ZAIJIASHE2020NIANQUANQIUYUANYOUHAIYUNLIANGZENGSUWEI2%DEQINGKUANGXIA,MEIGUOYINSUJIANGSHIYUNSHUXUQIUZENGJIAZHI4.4%,QUANQIUCHAODAXINGYOUCHUAN(VLCC)XUQIUZENGSUZUIGAOKECONG5.7%SHANGSHENGZHI9.9%,VLCCYUNJIAYOUWANGDACHAOYUQI。CONGZHONGZHANGQIKAN,YOUYUNSHICHANGJIANGCHUYUJIAOWEIHUOYUEZHUANGTAI。TONGSHI,XIANLIULINGZHIXINGZAIJI,BUFENCHUANBOWUFACANYUYUNSHU,CHUANBOYINANZHUANGTUOLIUTATUICHUJIQISHICHANG,JIAJUYUNLIJINZHANGJUMIAN。YINCI,2020NIANYOUCHUANJIANZAOSHICHANGYOUWANGDEDAOCHIXUGAISHAN,DANKAOLVDAOFENGXIANSHIJIAN,RENGXUBAOCHIJINSHEN。

                    集装箱船市场,步履艰难有望维稳

                    MUQIAN,JIZHUANGXIANGCHUANHANGYUNSHICHANGMIANLINDEGONGQIUJUMIANJIAOWEIFUZA。YIFANGMIAN,QUANQIUJINGJIMAOYIZENGSUXIAHUA,HUOYUNLIANGZENGZHANGSUDUYIJINGDABURUQIAN;LINGYIFANGMIAN,JIZHUANGXIANGCHUANYUNLIZENGZHANGHUANMAN。JIEZHI2019NIAN10YUE,JIZHUANGXIANGCHUANJIAOFULIANGZONGJI94WANTEU,HEQUNIANTONGQIJIAOFULIANG123WANTEUXIANGBI,XIAJIANG23.6%。SUIZHEXIANLIULINGBIJIN,QUANQIUJIZHUANGXIANGCHUANHANGYUNSHICHANGMIANLINZHE110YIMEIYUANDEDILIUYOURANLIAOEWAIZHICHU、YUNFEIDAFUZOUDIDENGBULIYINSU,KENENGHUIYOUGENGDUODEJIZHUANGXIANGCHUANTUICHUSHICHANG。YOUSHUJUXIANSHI,2019NIANSHANGBANNIANJIZHUANGXIANGCHUANCHAICHUANSHULIANGYUQUNIANTONGQIXIANGBIDAFUZENGJIA370%ZUOYOU。DANGQIAN,XINZENGDINGDANCHUYUJIAODISHUIPING,ZHANQUANQIUZONGYUNLIDE10%ZUOYOU。ZHEIXIEDOUYOUZHUYUGAISHANJIZHUANGXIANGCHUANYUNLIJIEGOU。JUHEBOLUOTEYUCE,2020NIANHAIHUIYOUYIDINGSHULIANGCHUANBOJIAOFU,YUJIYUNLIJINGZENGZHANGLVYUEWEI3%,HEMUQIANYUCEDEXUQIUZENGZHANGLVCHIPING。

                    MUQIAN,DUOSHUCHUANDONGDUISHICHANGZOUSHIYIJILIUPAIFANGGUIZEBUTONGJISHUFANGANYUNXINGQINGKUANGCHIGUANWANGTAIDU,DADUOSHUBANLUNGONGSIYEWANCHENGLEYUNLIDAXINGHUASHENGJI,2020NIANSHOUHUODALIANGXINCHUANDINGDANDEQINGKUANGBUTAIKENENGCHUXIAN,KAOLVDAODANGQIANJINGZHENGGEJUQUXIANGWENDING,WEILAIYINIANJIZHUANGXIANGCHUANJIANZAOSHICHANGSUIRANJIANNAN,DANYEYOUWANGWEICHIPINGWENTAISHI。

                    液化气船市场,LNG船活力十足

                    2019NIAN1~10YUE,LNGCHUANDINGDANWEI36SOU、310WANZAIZHONGDUN,YEHUASHIYOUQI(LPG)CHUANDINGDANWEI37SOU、92WANZAIZHONGDUN,HEQUNIANTONGQIXIANGBI,ANZAIZHONGDUNJILNGCHUANXIAJIANG16.4%,LPGCHUANXIAJIANG14%。WEILAIZAIGEGUONENGYUANZHANLVEDETUIDONGXIA,TIANRANQIJIANGZAIQUANQIUNENGYUANGEJUZHONGZHANJUYUELAIYUEZHONGYAODEDIWEI,XUQIUYIRANBAOCHIQIANGJING。

                    CONGLNGCHUKOUDUANLAIKAN,JUMEIGUONENGYUANBUYUCE,DAO2020NIANMEIGUOJIANGCHENGWEITIANRANQIJINGCHUKOUGUO,LNGJIANGZAIQIZHONGFAHUIGUANJIANZUOYONG,YUJIDAO2025NIANMEIGUOJIANGCHENGWEIQUANQIUZUIDADELNGCHUKOUGUO。2019NIANYILAI,QUANQIULNGXIANGMUTOUZIYICHAO500YIMEIYUAN。YUJIDAO2024NIAN,QUANQIULNGCHUKOULIANGDA5500YILIFANGMI。MEIGUO、AODALIYA、BABUYAXINJINEIYA、ELUOSI、KATAERDENGGUOLNGCHANNENGYEZAIBUDUANTISHENG。

                    CONGLNGJINKOUDUANLAIKAN,YAZHOUDEZHONGYAOXINGRIYIZENGJIA。QIZHONG,ZHONGGUOZAI“JIANMEIZENGQI”DENENGYUANGUIHUAXIA,ZHENGZHUBUCONGSHIYOUHEMEITANDENGCHUANTONGNENGYUANZHUANXIANGYEHUAQI,DAO2020NIANTIANRANQIZAIZHONGGUONENGYUANJIEGOUZHONGDESHICHANGFENECONG6%ZENGZHI10%,2030NIANZENGZHI15%。ZHONGGUOJIANGCHIXUTOUZIYEHUATIANRANQISHESHI,LNGCHUANXUQIUQIANGJING。CIWAI,YINDUZAIKUODALNGJINKOU,OUZHOULNGJINKOULIANGYEYOUSUOZENGJIA,DUIYULNGCHUANXUQIULIANGYIRANHENDA。ZONGTILAIKAN,JINGUANJINNIANLNGCHUANDINGDANLIANGYOUSUOJIANSHAO,DANZAIQINGJIENENGYUANDEJUDAXUQIUTUIDONGXIA,2020NIANLNGCHUANJIANGYIRANHUOLISHIZU。

                     

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